Exhibit A: The triangle troubleshooter (a column in the Raleigh News and Observer) reports the terrible wrong done to a poor woman who purchased 2 "Pick Three" tickets and, shock, horror, got the same number on both tickets. Oh the humanity...
The classic line from the lottery player is
"I don't have faith in this system," she said. "It doesn't make sense to me mathematically. There should be enough numbers that each ticket would be individual."
Consider the facts - its a pick THREE. There are 1000 possible numbers (assuming you allow 000), and 581,468 tickets are sold.
I propose that all proceeds from the lottery be directed to teach the citizens of this great state the basics of probability theory.
But until that happens, don't play the lottery unless a) you are severely mathematically challenged or b) you don't feel like you pay enough state tax.
Hi gatorbrit,
ReplyDeleteI don’t think playing the lottery has to be stupid. This view leaves out the value we get from the benefit of anticipation, which can be real pleasure as well. The question is: is the value of anticipation greater than the "cost of disappointment” (from not winning) and the “value of money to play in lottery” combined?
I recently had a more detailed look at it: http://www.spreadinghappiness.org/2009/09/lottery-and-happiness-or-“are-lottery-players-stupid”/
Good point - there is entertainment value in playing. But I would have thought that the entertainment value must diminish after playing (and loosing) many times.
ReplyDeleteMy use of "stupid" in this case was referring to the complete failure of the player in question to understand even rudimentary probability.
While I agree that you can enjoy playing the lottery, surely you should understand the basic probabilities of the game you are playing. It seems that in the case in question, the player really thought that she had a much better chance of winning.
More generally then, you have to wonder whether a state run enterprise should capitalize on the ignorance of its citizens in its bid to raise money for education.
Thanks for the comment and also for the link to your blog.