Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Nobel Prize Predictions

ipredict.com has a prediction market for who will win the Nobel prize in economics.  Notably the top two are Richard Thaler and Robert Shiller who are both behavioral economists.  

The ipredict market is basically a betting market where you can buy a contract on Thaler for about 33 cents which will pay a $1 if Thaler wins.

I won't even get into the issue of the efficiency of the market that is predicting a win by an opponent of efficient markets.