Thursday, May 1, 2008

Triple A Failure

Newmark's door has a great link to a piece by Roger Lowenstein on the role of bond rating agencies in the credit crisis.

It really is a must read article. In it, the finger is pointed at the bond raters - Moodys, S&P and Fitch for being too close to the banks issuing the mortgage backed debt.

Although this is a bigger question, I do sometimes wonder exactly what value bond rating agencies provide. Their business model seems to be not entirely dissimilar from that of running a protection racket. Consider the evidence:
1. You have to pay for the service. If you don't pay, you may not get as good a rating.
2. They will help you structure the product to get a better rating, but you may have to pay more.
3. The amount you can sell the bond for depends on the rating.
4. Bond rating changes usually lag changes in credit quality and thus have little predictive power.